TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will exceed certain passing attempt thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance during the match, making it a straightforward test of game-day execution under pressure.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by specified quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart or Dak Prescott) in the Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 13, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 24+, 25+, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' only if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold. If a quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a snap occurs—even if nullified by penalty—the market settles based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the specific threshold being wagered upon.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a certain outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available and influences trader behavior.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing attempt totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth indicates the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points, offering insight into the strength of conviction behind different predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing attempt total for the Dallas versus New York game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual passing attempt total will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts for incorrect totals will receive nothing. It's important to monitor official sources as the game progresses to understand how the outcome is unfolding.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor a passing or running game, could also impact trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive adjustments could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants can quickly shift the price, reflecting new insights or expectations about the game’s outcome.