TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which artist achieves the highest position on the global YouTube music video charts during September 2026. It reflects the competitive nature of online music video popularity and how artists strive for chart-topping positions. The outcome depends on real-time viewer engagement and streaming trends throughout the month.
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the specified artists—Ella Langley, Oliver Tree, KATSEYE, Moneybagg Yo, Lil Baby, Ice Spice, Ariana Grande, or Stray Kids—achieves the #1 position on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart at any point during September 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' exclusively if the corresponding artist attains the top spot on the specified chart for any day within that month. All markets operate independently; the resolution of one does not affect the others. Importantly, these markets and related products are not endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube or its trademarks are used descriptively, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on factors like past performance and current popularity, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential surprises. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about future trends, the impact of viral marketing, or unexpected releases. It’s common to see this market diverge from initial predictions, especially as new information emerges and the event draws closer, offering a unique view beyond standard industry analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each artist achieving the #1 video spot. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the artist with the music video that holds the #1 position on a globally recognized music video chart (such as YouTube or Vevo) for the majority of September 2026 will be considered the winner. The determination will be based on publicly available data and verified against credible sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The resolution process focuses on identifying the artist with sustained chart dominance during the specified period.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected album releases, viral marketing campaigns, major award show performances, or even controversies surrounding artists could all shift the odds. A surprise collaboration between popular artists, or a highly anticipated music video announcement, would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in streaming platform algorithms or the emergence of a new social media trend could also play a role. Monitoring artist announcements, industry news, and social media buzz will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could influence trading activity in this market.
