TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Samuel Heredia and Juan Sebastian Osorio in the Curitiba, Brazil, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Samuel Heredia' if Samuel Heredia advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Samuel Heredia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Samuel Heredia and Juan Sebastian Osorio in the Curitiba, Brazil, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Samuel Heredia' if Samuel Heredia advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Samuel Heredia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd and allow participants to financially stake their beliefs. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes differ due to factors like house biases or promotional offers. It’s common to see this market and sportsbooks disagree, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise in assessing the overall probability of an outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd and adjusts in real-time as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match between Samuel Heredia and Juan Sebastian Osorio. Any official announcements or results made by the governing body of the event will be used to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected match conditions could significantly shift the probabilities. Public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can also play a role. Additionally, large trades by influential market participants could create momentum and move the odds. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in this market before it resolves.