TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 6:58 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets determine whether Cuba or Bonaire achieves a victory by a margin exceeding specific goal differences within the same match timeframe. The outcomes hinge on the relative performance of each team rather than the absolute goal count.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if Cuba or Bonaire wins the professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer game scheduled for September 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for Cuba requires a win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while a 'Yes' for Bonaire requires a win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The secondary rule reiterates Kalshi's lack of official connection with CONCACAF and notes the ownership of all related trademarks.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially differing from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Therefore, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or analytical approaches. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts regarding the Cuba vs Bonaire match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing predictions on the spread in the Cuba vs Bonaire match, and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants. The current price represents the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread in the Cuba vs Bonaire match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by the governing body for this sporting event. The platform will then determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the spread. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the basis for resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to Sep 29, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected developments affecting the Cuba or Bonaire teams could significantly shift expectations. Weather conditions at the match location, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-match analysis, could also play a role. Major upsets in other related matches, or even broader trends in the teams’ performance, could also contribute to price movements in this market.