TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CS Independiente Rivadavia and CA River Plate scheduled for March 2, 2026. Markets track the outcome within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time across three mutually exclusive results: Rivadavia win, River Plate win, or draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market conflates game cancellation with a draw result, resolving to YES on cancellation. Kalshi's draw market only resolves YES if the actual match result is a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no explicit cancellation clause.Hero Tip:
Traders should be aware that Polymarket's draw market has embedded cancellation risk: if the game is canceled with no make-up, you win the draw bet even though no tie occurred. Kalshi traders face ambiguity on cancellation outcomes. Verify the official AFA website for any match status changes before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Rivadavia win, River Plate win, draw). Win markets resolve NO on cancellation. Draw market uniquely resolves YES if game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. All markets remain open if postponed. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Three outcome-based markets (Rivadavia wins, River Plate wins, Tie wins). All three resolve YES only if the corresponding result occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided for any market. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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