TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC
Volume:
$1,669,771
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between Crystal Palace FC and Newcastle United FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Palace win, Draw, Newcastle win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines a single market that resolves YES for all three outcomes (tie, Palace win, or Newcastle win), making Kalshi's market logically impossible to resolve to NO.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market — it contains a logical contradiction. Kalshi's market will always resolve YES regardless of match outcome, making it unsuitable for prediction. Polymarket's three-market structure is coherent and tradeable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on match scope and timing: Polymarket creates three mutually exclusive binary markets covering all possible 90-minute outcomes (Palace win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Newcastle win YES/NO). Exactly one market resolves YES per match. Key quote: 'If Crystal Palace FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Palace market); 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Draw market); 'If Newcastle United FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Newcastle market).
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single market with three resolution conditions that collectively cover all possible outcomes ('If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes'; 'If Crystal Palace wins...then resolves to Yes'; 'If Newcastle wins...then resolves to Yes'), meaning the market resolves YES regardless of match result and can never resolve NO. This contradicts standard prediction market logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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