Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) within 90 minutes plus stoppage time on April 12, 2026, using the same primary source (CBF/governing body statistics) with identical postponement and cancellation rules.
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) or the governing body/event organizers; if unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting consensus may be used.
Core resolution logic:
Polymarket market 1 (Cruzeiro win) resolves YES if Cruzeiro wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Polymarket market 2 (Draw) resolves YES if the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Polymarket market 3 (Bragantino win) resolves YES if Bragantino wins within 90 minutes plus stoppage time; otherwise NO.
Kalshi markets resolve YES if their specified outcome (Bragantino win, Tie, or Cruzeiro win) occurs within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until completion.
If the match is canceled with no make-up game, Polymarket's Cruzeiro and Bragantino win markets resolve NO, and the draw market resolves YES; Kalshi's outcome-specific markets resolve based on the cancellation outcome (no explicit cancellation clause provided for Kalshi, but the match completion requirement implies cancellation would prevent YES resolution).
Exactly one outcome (Cruzeiro win, Draw, or Bragantino win) will resolve YES across the group.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match is postponed beyond April 12, 2026, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is completed. Resolution occurs only after the rescheduled match concludes.
Match Cancellation Without Makeup: If the match is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, Polymarket's Cruzeiro win and Bragantino win markets resolve NO, while the draw market resolves YES. Kalshi's markets would not resolve YES under cancellation (implicit from the requirement that the game must be played).
Delayed Official Statistics: If CBF does not publish final match statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, both platforms permit resolution via consensus of credible reporting sources.
Extra Time and Penalties Excluded: All markets explicitly exclude extra time and penalty shootouts. Resolution is based solely on the result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time of regular play.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by CBF or the governing body within 2 hours of match conclusion, or via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed. Markets remain open if the match is postponed and resolve only after the rescheduled match is completed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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