TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 15, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Atletico Morelia, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent within the regulation 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Cruz Azul Hidalgo versus Atletico Morelia match scheduled for August 15, 2026, in the Liga de Expansion MX. Resolution is based solely on the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct conditions are assessed: Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 2.5 goals, Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 1.5 goals, Atletico Morelia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Atletico Morelia winning by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific condition that is met; if none of these conditions are satisfied—such as a draw, a win by exactly the threshold goals, or a win by a margin that does not meet any specified differential—the event resolves as 'No' across all markets. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to trader dynamics and the unique betting structure of Kalshi. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytics and risk management, prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs and can shift more rapidly with new information. Traders may see different implied probabilities compared to sportsbook lines, especially as game conditions or team news develop.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds in this market through buying and selling contracts that represent possible point differentials. The current price reflects the collective assessment of participants about which team is likely to win by a certain margin. As new data emerges — such as player injuries or weather updates — trader activity can quickly adjust the market’s implied spread.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be calculated based on the official match result, and the market will settle accordingly. Traders should monitor official score updates and credible sports news sources as the game concludes.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions affecting gameplay, and strategic decisions by coaches can all shift trader sentiment in this market. Mid-game updates such as scoring runs or changes in team momentum may also cause rapid adjustments. Any news that impacts the perceived likelihood of a win by a specific margin — from lineup changes to referee decisions — could move the odds significantly before resolution.