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Crude Oil all time high by...?
polymarket
predict

Will crude oil hit an all-time high?

Total volume:
$5,000,846
Volume 24h:
$60,596
19%
Liquidity:
$222,176
42%
Open interest:
$696,321N/A

March 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

March 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027?

19%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 20¢ buys you 500 shares | Odds: 19% Total Payout: $500 | Net Profit: $400 Multiplier: 5.00x | ROI: 400% High Projected APY: 3,201% 167 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 20¢No 82¢
2¢
$50,691
$6,240
8%
N/A
N/A
5mo 2w 3d
active
predict

December 31

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 14.8¢No 87¢
1.8¢
$33,723
$29,592
9%
15%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$108,011
$1,870,262
3%
10%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
11.5%
Yes 13.4¢No 88¢
Avg: 1.4¢Max: 1.8¢
polymarket

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,222,718
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

September 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$29,751
$81,065
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$448,552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$342,417
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high price, above $147.27, by a specified date. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring by March 31, 2027 is 19.0%, while the probability of reaching a new high by December 31 is 10.9%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Predict, with resolution determined by the daily high price of the Active Month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract as reported on the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html). Traders should watch the price of crude oil as the betting period closes on March 31, 2027 to see if a new all-time high is reached.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same resolution source (CME Group) and criteria (daily high price of the Active Month CL futures exceeding $147.27).Primary resolution logic: CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered when the daily high price of the Active Month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract exceeds $147.27 on any trading day after market creation and before or on the specified date.
  • If the price does not exceed $147.27 by the specified date, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Final Trading Day: Resolution occurs once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published. If finalized data is not published within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of the period, the market resolves based on data available up to that point.
  • Active Month Definition: The Active Month is the nearest contract month listed, changing two business days prior to spot month expiration. This definition is consistently applied across platforms.
Timing: Resolution will occur as soon as a high price greater than $147.27 is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by Apr 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $5,000,846, with $55,175 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates substantial interest in the potential for a record-breaking oil price. The current probability of this outcome, as reflected by the combined trading activity in the crude oil price market, is approximately 5.1%. This provides a unique, real-time perspective on market sentiment.

Prediction market odds, such as those found in this market, often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on fundamental and technical analysis, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when unforeseen events or “black swan” risks are involved. While analyst forecasts may offer detailed reasoning, this market reflects the collective belief of traders willing to put capital behind their predictions. This difference can be valuable for a more holistic view of potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, differing interface designs and user experiences can influence trading behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by March 31, 2027? at 19.0%, while Predict leans toward Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? at 13.9%, illustrating these potential differences.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether crude oil has reached a new all-time high price before that date. The final price will be determined by a widely recognized benchmark for crude oil, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate, and verified against credible public sources. Trading will cease once the outcome is known, and winning traders will be paid out according to the market’s rules.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions, could disrupt supply and drive prices higher. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand, could also influence the market. Unexpected changes in OPEC+ production policies or significant shifts in energy policy from major consuming nations are other potential catalysts. Furthermore, unforeseen disruptions to oil infrastructure, like pipeline outages or refinery issues, could create short-term price spikes. Monitoring these events is crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.