TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Total volume:
$408,426
Volume 24h:
$51,222
102%
Liquidity:
$101,684
32%
Open interest:
$199,215
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by various dates through 2026. Markets are split across Kalshi (which offers 17 separate binary contracts at different price thresholds) and Polymarket (which offers 4 time-bound contracts with a fixed $147.27 ATH threshold). The core question is identical: will WTI/CL crude oil exceed its previous all-time high?
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms use different data sources (ICE vs CME), different price types (settle vs daily high), and different ATH reference points. Kalshi offers threshold-based contracts without explicit all-time high definition; Polymarket uses a fixed $147.27 threshold framed as the ATH.Hero Tip:
Verify which exchange and price type your counterparties expect. If ICE and CME prices diverge materially, or if the true historical all-time high differs from $147.27, arbitrage or basis risk may emerge. Request clarification on whether $147.27 is the consensus ATH or a Polymarket-specific assumption.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 17 binary contracts, each with a specific price threshold ($80–$200). Resolution: Yes if ICE reports maximum WTI front-month settle price above threshold between issuance and Dec 31, 2026. No explicit all-time high definition; thresholds are arbitrary levels. Key quote: 'If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above [threshold]...'
- Polymarket: 4 time-bound contracts (June 30, May 31, Sept 30, Dec 31). Resolution: Yes if CME CL futures daily high exceeds $147.27 on any trading day by specified date. Explicitly frames $147.27 as all-time high reference. Key quote: 'the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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