TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$177,903,386

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,049,845,057

824,617

Markets across

14,701

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Crude Oil all time high by...?
Financials
kalshi
polymarket

Crude Oil all time high by...? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$8,888,170
Volume 24h:
$62,625
13%
Liquidity:
$71,021
24%
Open interest:
$2,933,331
0.7%
PredictionHero
$120.01 or above 29%
kalshi
$115.01 or above 28%
kalshi
$125.01 or above 24%
kalshi
Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026Jul 2026020406080100

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $120.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

29%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 29.3¢ buys you 341 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $341 | Net Profit: $241 Multiplier: 3.41x | ROI: 241% High Projected APY: 1,295% 169 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high through various price thresholds by the end of 2026. The consensus probability that WTI front-month crude will exceed $160 by December 31, 2026 stands at 30.0%, aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, with a secondary threshold of $115.01 showing 29.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by ICE's reported maximum WTI front-month settle price during the tracking period. Watch for major geopolitical developments and OPEC+ production decisions through year-end 2026, as these typically drive sustained crude price movements toward historical peaks.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms use different data sources (ICE vs CME), different price types (settle vs daily high), and different ATH reference points. Kalshi offers threshold-based contracts without explicit all-time high definition; Polymarket uses a fixed $147.27 threshold framed as the ATH.Hero tip: Verify which exchange and price type your counterparties expect. If ICE and CME prices diverge materially, or if the true historical all-time high differs from $147.27, arbitrage or basis risk may emerge. Request clarification on whether $147.27 is the consensus ATH or a Polymarket-specific assumption.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 17 binary contracts, each with a specific price threshold ($80–$200). Resolution: Yes if ICE reports maximum WTI front-month settle price above threshold between issuance and Dec 31, 2026. No explicit all-time high definition; thresholds are arbitrary levels. Key quote: 'If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above [threshold]...'
  • Polymarket: 4 time-bound contracts (June 30, May 31, Sept 30, Dec 31). Resolution: Yes if CME CL futures daily high exceeds $147.27 on any trading day by specified date. Explicitly frames $147.27 as all-time high reference. Key quote: 'the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum WTI front-month settle price reported by ICE between issuance and December 31, 2026. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the maximum price exceeds the specified threshold during this period. Thresholds range from $115 up to $200 per barrel, with increments varying from $5 to $20. ICE front-month settle prices serve as the exclusive data source for determining the maximum price achieved.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high across Polymarket and Kalshi. It consolidates liquidity of $8,888,170 in total group volume, with $62,117 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard displays the top outcome on each platform, current implied probabilities, and cross-platform consensus, allowing traders to compare how different markets price the same fundamental question about crude oil's trajectory through Jan 1, 2027.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from thousands of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, often incorporating forward-looking sentiment faster than traditional analyst reports. While sell-side energy analysts typically publish quarterly outlooks based on supply-demand models and geopolitical risk, prediction markets price in live information and tail risks. Market odds on this event serve as a crowdsourced probability estimate that can validate or challenge consensus forecasts, particularly useful for traders seeking alternative views on crude oil's potential to breach historical highs by Jan 1, 2027.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi may price the same crude oil outcome differently due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and outcome specificity. Polymarket's top outcome targets a specific price level by a defined date, while Kalshi frames the question around a broader timeframe. Differences in trading hours, fee structures, and regional trader participation can also create temporary spreads. Arbitrage opportunities and platform-specific risk tolerances drive these discrepancies, making cross-platform comparison valuable for identifying mispricings.

Major catalysts include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, US inventory reports, and macroeconomic shifts affecting energy demand. Recession fears or dollar strength typically pressure crude lower, while supply disruptions or inflation concerns support higher prices. Central bank policy, renewable energy adoption rates, and seasonal demand patterns also influence crude trajectories. Traders monitor weekly EIA data, Fed communications, and Middle East developments closely, as any shock to supply or demand could rapidly shift market odds on whether crude reaches a new all-time high by Jan 1, 2027.

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