TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 23, 8:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in a professional league match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by a specific number of goals. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various margin-of-victory scenarios in a specific Brasileiro Serie B soccer match between Criciuma and Fortaleza scheduled for August 23, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are assessed: Criciuma winning by more than 2.5 goals, Criciuma winning by more than 1.5 goals, Fortaleza winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Fortaleza winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the respective condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to community-driven pricing and different risk profiles. In this market, traders may price in nuances like recent team form or injury updates that sportsbooks might smooth out. The gap can also reflect liquidity differences — prediction markets with lower volume may show sharper or more volatile lines. Comparing both gives a broader view of public expectation versus institutional betting trends.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding, with the current top outcome reflecting the majority view. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to incentivize accurate forecasting, balancing risk and reward. As the match date nears, news such as lineup changes or weather conditions can cause rapid shifts in pricing, capturing the evolving expectations of participants.
This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on the official match score and any confirmed adjustments, such as overtime or penalties, following the game’s conclusion.
Injuries to key players, weather forecasts, or tactical announcements from coaches can all shift expectations and move this market. High-profile transfers or recent performance trends may also influence trader sentiment. As Aug 24, 2026 approaches, any last-minute updates — even minor ones — could cause rapid price adjustments, reflecting the community’s real-time assessment of who’s likely to cover the spread.