This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Creighton Bluejays and Butler Bulldogs scheduled for March 4, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), over/under totals at multiple thresholds (154.5 and 155.5), spread betting, and point-differential outcomes across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: final official score including overtime, postponement keeps markets open, cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50, and NCAA records serve as the authoritative source.
Primary resolution logic:
NCAA official final game score and box score (https://www.ncaa.com/)
Core resolution logic:
Moneyline: Creighton wins if final score is higher; Butler wins if final score is higher
Over/Under 154.5: Over if combined score >= 155 points; Under if combined score < 155 points
Over/Under 155.5: Over if combined score >= 156 points; Under if combined score < 156 points
Spread Butler -2.5: Butler wins if they win by 3+ points; Creighton wins otherwise (includes ties and 1-2 point Butler wins)
Point Differential Markets (Kalshi): Resolve Yes if the specified margin condition is met (e.g., Creighton +1.5, +3.5, +6.5, +9.5, +12.5 or Butler +3.5, +6.5, +9.5, +12.5, +15.5, +18.5)
All results determined from final score including any overtime periods
Postponement: Markets remain open until game is completed
Cancellation without makeup: All markets resolve 50-50
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Overtime: All markets resolve using the final score after all overtime periods are complete. No special treatment; overtime points count toward totals and margins.
Postponement: If the game is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the game is actually played and completed.
Cancellation without makeup: If the game is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled, all markets resolve 50-50 (or No for Kalshi binary markets).
Spread push scenario: For Butler -2.5 spread: if Butler wins by exactly 2 points or fewer, or if Creighton wins by any margin, the market resolves to Creighton.
Total tie scenario: For Over/Under markets: if combined score equals exactly the threshold (154.5 or 155.5), the Under resolves (e.g., 155 points total = Under on 155.5 line).
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the final official score is recorded by NCAA and published. For postponed games, resolution is deferred until the makeup game is completed. Cancellations without makeup are resolved within 24 hours of official cancellation announcement.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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