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406,422

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2,688

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5

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CR Vasco da Gama vs. Mirassol FC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of CR Vasco da Gama vs. Mirassol FC?

Volume:
$768,971

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 26, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 9:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$115,107
N/A
N/A
$68,378
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (CR Vasco da Gama vs. Mirassol FC)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$58,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mirassol

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$181,930
N/A
N/A
$94,874
Settled
No
polymarket

Mirassol FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Vasco da Gama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$170,518
N/A
N/A
$80,728
Settled
No
polymarket

CR Vasco da Gama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,585
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether the Brazilian Série A soccer match between CR Vasco da Gama and Mirassol FC, scheduled for July 25, 2026, will end in a draw. The aggregated consensus probability for a draw stands at 100.0%, drawn from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution governed by the official rules on the CBF website. The upcoming match on July 25, 2026, will provide the definitive outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses mutually exclusive binary markets while Kalshi uses three independent yes/no markets. The structural difference creates ambiguity about whether Kalshi markets are designed as a unified outcome set or independent events, though both platforms reference the same underlying match result and time window.Hero tip: Both platforms should resolve based on the official CBF (Brazilian Football Confederation) final match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Confirm with Kalshi whether their three markets are treated as mutually exclusive (only one resolves Yes) or independent. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three outcome markets will resolve Yes. Postponements keep markets open; cancellations with no makeup resolve Vasco/Mirassol markets to No and Draw market to Yes on Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with explicit mutual exclusivity. Exactly one outcome (Vasco win, Draw, or Mirassol win) will resolve Yes based on official final result. Cancellation with no makeup: Vasco and Mirassol markets resolve No, Draw market resolves Yes. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (for win markets) and 'Yes' (for draw market).
  • Kalshi: Three independent yes/no markets structured as separate events: 'If [Vasco/Mirassol/Tie] is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit cancellation clause provided. Structural ambiguity: unclear whether markets are designed as mutually exclusive outcome set or truly independent events. Key Quote: 'If Tie is the result of the Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2026 between CR Vasco da Gama and Mirassol FC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol Brasileiro Serie A match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. The match outcome resolves to one of three possibilities: a Vasco da Gama victory, a Mirassol victory, or a tie. If the scheduled match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with standard procedures.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader activity rather than bookmaker models, often reflecting real-time information flow and crowd sentiment more dynamically. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to manage liability and lock in margins, whereas prediction markets reward accurate forecasting through direct payouts. This market's odds may diverge from traditional sportsbooks because traders on these platforms price in live news, injury reports, and betting patterns independently. Comparing both sources can reveal where public perception differs from professional oddsmaking.

Key catalysts include team roster announcements, injury updates to star players, recent form and head-to-head records, and any late-breaking tactical changes. Weather conditions on match day can significantly influence play style and scoring likelihood. Social media sentiment, expert analysis, and betting volume spikes on other platforms often precede sharp price moves here. Live match events—early goals, red cards, or momentum shifts—will drive rapid repricing as traders update their forecasts in real time, making this an active market right up to kickoff.