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CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

Who will score first: CR Vasco da Gama or Fluminense FC?

Volume:
$736

Mirassol FC SP

 - Kalshi

Mirassol FC SP - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 25, 8:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mirassol FC SP

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Neither

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$409
N/A
N/A
$408
Settled
No
kalshi

CR Vasco da Gama RJ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
polymarket

CR Vasco da Gama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fluminense FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group concerns which team scores first in a match between CR Vasco da Gama and Fluminense FC. However, the source data reveals a critical mismatch: Kalshi describes a match against Mirassol FC SP on July 25, 2026, while Polymarket describes a match against Fluminense FC on August 1, 2026. These are fundamentally different games, making unified resolution impossible.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Match identity mismatch combined with logical incoherence in Kalshi resolution logic. Kalshi references Mirassol FC SP (July 25, 2026) while Polymarket references Fluminense FC (August 1, 2026). Additionally, Kalshi's resolution states all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to Yes, which is a data integrity failure.Hero tip: This market group cannot be safely settled. The platforms describe two different matches entirely. Kalshi's resolution logic is also internally contradictory (all outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes). Halt trading, request official clarification on the correct match details, and escalate the Kalshi logic error to the platform's compliance team before any resolution attempt.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References CR Vasco da Gama RJ vs. Mirassol FC SP (Brasileiro Serie A, July 25, 2026). Includes extra time in scope. Critical flaw: all three outcomes (Vasco scores first, Mirassol scores first, or neither scores) are stated to resolve to Yes, which is logically impossible. Quote: 'If CR Vasco da Gama RJ records the first goal...then the market resolves to Yes. If Mirassol FC SP records the first goal...then the market resolves to Yes. If no team records the first goal...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: References CR Vasco da Gama vs. Fluminense FC (August 1, 2026, 4:30 PM ET). Excludes extra time; resolves only on first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes: CR Vasco da Gama, Fluminense FC, or Neither. Quote: 'This market will resolve to CR Vasco da Gama if CR Vasco da Gama are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time...If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve Neither.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between CR Vasco da Gama and Fluminense FC, scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CR Vasco da Gama" if CR Vasco da Gama are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Fluminense FC" if Fluminense FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the entire match, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If the first goal is an own goal, the resolution is based on the team to which the goal is officially awarded. The match is a professional Brasileiro Serie A game originally scheduled for July 25, 2026.

Frequently asked questions

The first-goal scorer market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on which team will score first in the CR Vasco da Gama versus Fluminense FC match. This market reflects real-time consensus from prediction traders worldwide, with prices updating as new information emerges. By tracking this market, you can monitor how informed traders assess each team's offensive setup, form, and tactical advantage heading into kickoff. The combined volume across platforms reveals the depth of conviction behind each outcome, helping you gauge whether consensus is shifting or holding steady as match day approaches.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating margin. Prediction markets, by contrast, are driven by supply and demand from traders betting real money on their beliefs. This can result in sharper, more efficient pricing in prediction markets, especially when traders possess edge or specialized insight. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news due to dedicated risk management teams. Comparing both venues helps you identify mispricings and understand where the broader market consensus diverges from professional bookmakers.

Key catalysts include confirmed team lineups, injury announcements, and tactical shifts disclosed by either manager. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage can shift trader sentiment as match day nears. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and any last-minute roster changes may also trigger repricing. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can influence retail trader positioning. Large trades on either side of the market may signal informed money entering or exiting, prompting other traders to reassess their positions. Monitor official team channels and sports news outlets for updates that could reshape expectations around offensive firepower and early-game momentum.