TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 12:29 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the likelihood of Independiente del Valle scoring over 0.5 goals in the second half of their Copa Libertadores match against CR Flamengo, aggregating data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 100.0%. Resolution will be based on the official final score published on https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Keep an eye on the match scheduled for September 17, 2024, as per Polymarket’s resolution scope, to see if Independiente del Valle reaches this goal, including any stoppage time.
More markets for the Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for September 17 at 8:30 PM ET.
The event evaluates multiple conditions regarding the goal differential in the Flamengo versus Indepéndiente del Valle CONMEBOL Libertadores match scheduled for September 17, 2026, considering only regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties). Four distinct outcomes are possible: Flamengo winning by more than 2.5 goals, Flamengo winning by more than 1.5 goals, Indepéndiente del Valle winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Indepéndiente del Valle winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each condition is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive for determining a resolution. The event explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or its trademarks, logos, and brand names, emphasizing that all referenced intellectual property belongs to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. This can differ from sportsbook odds, which are typically set by a smaller team of professionals and may be influenced by factors like house bias or marketing strategies. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while prediction markets generally have lower transaction costs. However, both prediction markets and sportsbooks aim to accurately forecast the probability of different outcomes, and discrepancies can present opportunities for arbitrage.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market design, and liquidity. Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders with specific expertise in soccer, while Kalshi could have a broader user base with varying levels of knowledge. Additionally, the specific markets offered on each platform influence price discovery; Polymarket currently favors CR Flamengo vs. Independiente del Valle: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 at 100 percent, while Kalshi leans toward Reg Time: Flamengo wins by more than 2.5 goals? at n/a percent. These differences in participation and market structure contribute to price divergence.