CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader sentiment about November 2026 month-over-month CPI, which often diverges from traditional analyst consensus. While economists typically issue point forecasts based on models and historical trends, prediction markets aggregate distributed information from many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Comparing the current market probability to consensus economist expectations reveals whether traders expect inflation dynamics to differ from mainstream forecasts. This comparison helps identify where market participants see upside or downside surprises relative to professional predictions.

On Kalshi, CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026 is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability of the top outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability stands at 50.0%, with $0 in 24-hour volume. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where each cent represents a one-percentage-point probability. The market price continuously adjusts based on order flow and new information about inflation expectations, employment data, and Federal Reserve policy signals relevant to November 2026 CPI.

The CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026 market resolves on Dec 10, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Consumer Price Index data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for November 2026. The outcome will reflect the actual month-over-month percentage change in the CPI, which measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services from October to November 2026. This widely-watched economic indicator directly determines how the market settles.

Several factors could shift market odds for November 2026 CPI before resolution. Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest rate changes influence inflation expectations and consumer spending patterns. Energy prices, particularly oil, directly impact headline CPI. Labor market strength affects wage growth and pricing power. Supply chain disruptions or geopolitical events could alter goods availability and costs. Seasonal factors specific to November, such as holiday shopping demand, influence price pressures. Additionally, prior monthly CPI releases throughout 2026 will provide real-time inflation trends that traders use to refine their November forecasts.