TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket round 1 match between UNO MILLE and Keyd in the ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 20 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "UNO MILLE" if UNO MILLE win the match against Keyd. This market will resolve to "Keyd" if Keyd win the match against UNO MILLE. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different resolution scopes for the same event. Kalshi focuses narrowly on whether over 2.5 maps are played (a single binary outcome), while Polymarket provides comprehensive match resolution across multiple markets covering match winner, individual map winners, and statistical outcomes (kills/rounds per map).Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting only on series length (3+ maps = Yes). If you trade on Polymarket, you have granular exposure to match outcome, map-by-map results, and in-game statistics. Kalshi's single market is a subset of Polymarket's full event coverage; outcomes on Kalshi will not directly predict Polymarket map/kill markets, even though both reference the same underlying match.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary market resolving YES if over 2.5 maps are played (i.e., the series goes to Map 3), with no granularity on match winner or map-specific outcomes. The rule states 'If over 2.5 maps are played in the ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 2026: Keyd vs. UNO MILLE CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 11 separate markets covering match winner (UNO MILLE vs Keyd), individual map winners (Map 1, Map 2), map-specific statistics (odd/even kills and rounds for Maps 1, 2, 3), series length (Over/Under 2.5 maps), and map handicaps. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to HLTV.org as primary source. For example, the match winner market resolves 'to UNO MILLE if UNO MILLE win the match against Keyd' and the Map 1 winner market resolves independently based on Map 1 completion.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.