TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere in the BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A, initially scheduled for March 20 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Falcons. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves based on the tournament winner (BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 overall champion), while Polymarket resolves based on individual map outcomes and series statistics from the specific BO3 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere. These are logically incompatible settlement bases.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets will move together. Kalshi's YES outcome depends on either team winning the entire tournament, not the head-to-head match result. Polymarket's markets depend on specific map scores, kills, and rounds from the BO3 match itself. A team can lose the BO3 match but still win the tournament, or win the BO3 but fail to win the tournament. Verify which settlement basis matches your trading thesis before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves YES if either Team Falcons OR Natus Vincere wins the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 tournament overall. The resolution condition is 'If Team Falcons wins the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' OR 'If Natus Vincere wins the BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market always resolves YES regardless of which team wins, making it logically incoherent as a prediction market. The underlying event is the tournament championship, not the BO3 match outcome.
- Polymarket: Aligned with match-specific resolution: Polymarket resolves based on the actual BO3 match result and individual map statistics (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Map 1/2/3 Odd/Even Rounds, Map 1/2/3 Odd/Even Kills, Games Total O/U 2.5, Map Handicap, and overall BO3 winner). All Polymarket markets reference 'the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Team Falcons and Natus Vincere in the BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A, initially scheduled for March 20 at 12:00PM ET' with HLTV.org as the primary source. These markets resolve based on actual match play, not tournament outcome.
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