TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 23, 2026
Closed: Jul 23, 7:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs OG (+6.5)
Intro
This market tracks the outcome of the Counter-Strike best-of-three match between Spirit and OG in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 100.0%. Data is drawn from Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless, with resolution details provided by https://hltv.org. Watch for the match itself, scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, as it will determine the final result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Forfeit/walkover treatment differs between platforms. Polymarket and Predict treat pre-match forfeits as 50-50; Limitless treats them as decisive wins. Timeout deadlines also diverge: Polymarket/Predict use 7 days from scheduled date; Limitless uses August 23, 2026, 23:59 UTC (31-day hard deadline).Hero tip: If a forfeit or walkover occurs before the match begins, expect 50-50 resolution on Polymarket/Predict but a decisive win on Limitless. For timing, Limitless offers a longer grace period (31 days) but with a hard cutoff; Polymarket/Predict use a relative 7-day window. Confirm match status with HLTV before settlement.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Match outcome and map markets resolve to 50-50 if match is canceled, not played, or delayed beyond 7 days without play beginning. Pre-match forfeit/walkover = 50-50. In-match forfeit/disqualification = team win. Map-specific markets (rounds, handicaps) require completion by rounds played; forfeit/walkover on a map = 50-50. Primary source: HLTV.org within 2 hours; fallback to credible reporting and video evidence.
- Predict: Identical logic to Polymarket: match outcome 50-50 if canceled or delayed 7+ days without play. Pre-match forfeit/walkover = 50-50. In-match forfeit = team win. Map rounds must be played to completion; forfeit/walkover = 50-50. Primary source: HLTV.org within 2 hours; fallback to credible reporting and video evidence.
- Limitless: Match outcome resolves YES (Spirit) or NO (OG) if either team is declared winner by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover at any stage. No official result by August 23, 2026, 23:59 UTC = 'Other'. Does not specify 7-day delay threshold or 50-50 fallback for pre-match forfeits.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Spirit and OG in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 23 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Predict
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Spirit and OG in the BLAST Bounty Qualifier, initially scheduled for July 23 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against OG. This market will resolve to "OG" if OG win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Spirit and OG in the BLAST Bounty Summer 2026, scheduled for Jul 23, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 23, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, often adjusting lines based on bet flow rather than pure probability. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on traders' direct financial stakes to reveal true belief—there is no house edge, and prices move purely through supply and demand. This market's odds reflect what thousands of traders collectively believe will happen, which can diverge from sportsbook lines, especially if one venue has sharper or more specialized information about esports team form.
Key catalysts include roster changes or player substitutions announced by either team, recent match performance and form trends, injury or availability updates, and head-to-head historical records in similar tournaments. Map pool preferences and bans can also shift odds, as can coaching changes or strategic adjustments. Media coverage highlighting one team's momentum or a rival's slump often triggers repricing. Additionally, betting syndicates or professional traders entering the market with large positions can move prices sharply. Monitor esports news outlets and team social media for announcements that could alter trader conviction before the match begins.
