TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Volume:
$35,933
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Counter-Strike Best-of-3 match between Sinners and ECSTATIC in the Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, scheduled for March 4, 2026. Markets span match winner, individual map winners (Map 1 and Map 2), games total over/under, and map handicaps across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible match outcomes (ECSTATIC wins OR Sinners wins) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market unresolvable. Polymarket provides coherent granular markets with proper binary logic. The two platforms define fundamentally incompatible market scopes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's match-winner market; it is logically broken. Trade only Polymarket's six markets (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, Games Total O/U 2.5, Map Handicap SIN -1.5, Map Handicap ECS -1.5, Match Winner). Always cross-check HLTV.org for official results within 2 hours post-match. If HLTV is silent, gather video evidence from credible sources. Flag any match delay beyond March 11, 2026 (7 days from March 4 scheduled date) as a 50-50 tie-break trigger.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market states: 'If ECSTATIC wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Sinners wins... resolves to Yes'. This is a logical contradiction. Both outcomes map to the same resolution, making the market unresolvable and non-functional.
- Polymarket: Six distinct markets with clear binary outcomes and comprehensive edge-case rules. Match Winner resolves to Sinners or ECSTATIC (or 50-50 if canceled, tied, or delayed >7 days). Map-specific markets resolve based on completed map results or 50-50 if incomplete. Games Total O/U 2.5 resolves Over (3+ maps) or Under (<3 maps), with 50-50 for cancellations or incomplete matches. Handicap markets resolve based on map differential. All source HLTV.org with 2-hour fallback to credible consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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