TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket round 1 match between OLDBOYS- and MASONIC in the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 22 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "OLDBOYS-" if OLDBOYS- win the match against MASONIC. This market will resolve to "MASONIC" if MASONIC win the match against OLDBOYS-. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market logic is fundamentally broken and contradictory—it resolves YES for both possible outcomes (OLDBOYS- wins OR MASONIC wins the tournament), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket markets are well-defined and resolvable based on match-specific outcomes (map winners, kill/round counts). The Kalshi market cannot function as written.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely—it will resolve YES regardless of outcome, making it worthless for prediction. All meaningful trading should occur on Polymarket, where individual map and series outcomes are clearly defined and independently resolvable.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Market states: 'If OLDBOYS- wins the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If MASONIC wins the ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes, rendering it unresolvable. The market conflates tournament victory with match outcome and contains no NO resolution condition.Polymarket:
Markets are granular and logically sound: Map 1/2/3 winners, odd/even kills per map, odd/even rounds per map, series total maps (O/U 2.5), map handicap (-1.5/+1.5), and overall match winner. Each market has clear YES/NO or binary outcomes with explicit 50-50 fallback conditions (cancellation, delay >7 days, forfeit, no play). Resolution source is HLTV with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
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