TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage
Volume:
$1,727,996
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Counter-Strike best-of-three match between MOUZ and PARIVISION at the PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage, scheduled for February 14, 2026. Markets span match winner, map-level outcomes, map handicaps, and series length, with resolution tied to official HLTV.org records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi defines resolution around tournament outcome rather than match outcome, creating scope misalignment. Polymarket exhibits internal inconsistency: Match Winner market counts forfeits as valid wins, while Map Handicap and O/U 2.5 markets treat forfeits as 50-50 outcomes. This creates logical contradiction in how a single match result (forfeit) resolves across related markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously without clarification. Kalshi's market may not resolve if the match is played but MOUZ/PARIVISION does not win the tournament. On Polymarket, if a forfeit occurs, the Match Winner market will resolve to the winning team, but the Map Handicap and O/U 2.5 markets will resolve 50-50—creating arbitrage risk. Request explicit guidance from Polymarket on whether a forfeit-induced match win should cascade to handicap/O/U resolution or remain 50-50.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Scope Mismatch: Market resolves Yes if MOUZ or PARIVISION wins the entire PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 tournament, not specifically if they win the head-to-head match. No explicit guidance on forfeiture, cancellation, or match-level edge cases. Quote: 'If MOUZ wins the PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026: PARIVISION vs. MOUZ CS2 match... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket (Match Winner): Match-level resolution: Resolves to winning team if match is completed or if one team wins by forfeit/disqualification/walkover. Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.'
- Polymarket (Map Handicap & O/U 2.5): Forfeiture Triggers 50-50: If match begins but is not completed due to forfeit/disqualification/walkover, these markets resolve 50-50. Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Polymarket (Map 1/Map 2 Winner): Map-level resolution: Resolves based on completed map outcome only. If map is not completed, resolves 50-50. No special forfeiture clause; forfeiture of a map likely triggers 50-50. Quote: 'If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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