TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
%20scale(0.82)%20translate(-12.5%20-12.5)'%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M9.619%2012.69h12.995a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200-2.76h-3.932l5.298-5.405.032-.032L22.08%202.56h-5.255V1.38c0-.76-.619-1.38-1.38-1.38H9.81c-.76%200-1.38.62-1.38%201.38V11.5c0%20.657.534%201.19%201.19%201.19m12.995-2.186h-5.3l5.89-6.01-1.139-1.139-5.813%205.933V1.38a.806.806%200%200%200-.805-.806.806.806%200%200%200-.805.806v9.545c0%20.656.533%201.19%201.189%201.19h6.783a.806.806%200%200%200%200-1.612'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20fill-rule='evenodd'%20d='M14.393%2011.31H1.398a1.382%201.382%200%200%200%200%202.76H5.33L.032%2019.476%200%2019.507l1.931%201.933h5.255v1.18c0%20.76.619%201.38%201.379%201.38h5.638c.76%200%201.38-.62%201.38-1.38V12.5c0-.657-.534-1.19-1.19-1.19m.293%2011.31a.8.8%200%200%201-.788.805.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.805v-7.904l-5.69%205.928-1.113-1.139%205.764-6.005H6.884a.797.797%200%200%201-.787-.806c0-.444.353-.806.787-.806h6.638c.642%200%201.164.534%201.164%201.19z'%20clip-rule='evenodd'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
Match Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Limitless
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Closed: Jun 11, 2:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-6.5) vs Legacy (+6.5)
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5)
Intro
This event group tracks the outcome of a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike match between MOUZ and Legacy at IEM Cologne Major Stage 3. Across Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for the leading outcome, with resolution sourced to HLTV.org and credible reporting within 2 hours of match conclusion. Markets span match winner, individual map outcomes, round totals, handicaps, and map count. Watch for the match scheduled June 11, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET to determine the series result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms (Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict) apply consistent resolution logic: HLTV.org primary source, forfeits/walkovers counted if match begun, map-level markets require completion, and 50-50 for cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days.Primary resolution logic: HLTV.org (https://hltv.org), with fallback to consensus of credible reporting and video evidence within 2 hours of event conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match winner resolves to the team winning 2 maps in the BO3 series
- Forfeit, disqualification, or walkover counts as a completed match only if the match has begun; pre-match withdrawal resolves to 50-50
- Map-specific markets (Map 1/2/3 winner, round totals, handicaps) require the map to be played to completion with rounds actually played; maps decided by forfeit/walkover/default resolve to 50-50
- Series must conclude by July 11, 2026 23:59 UTC (Limitless deadline) or within 7 days of June 11, 2026 scheduled date (other platforms) to avoid 50-50 resolution
- Cancellations, ties, and delays beyond the deadline resolve to 50-50
- Team name discrepancies (abbreviations, sponsor tags, minor formatting) resolve based on the underlying real-world match, not exact name matching
- Maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover count toward map handicap and series map count if the match is completed
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Match begins but incomplete with one team winning by forfeit: Resolves to the winning team for match winner markets; map-specific markets for incomplete maps resolve to 50-50
- Pre-match forfeit or walkover: Match winner and map-specific markets resolve to 50-50; does not count as a completed match
- Map played to completion then later match forfeited: Completed maps resolve on their actual round scores; series-level markets resolve based on map count achieved
- Exact round total equals threshold (e.g., 21.5): Resolves to 50-50 for over/under markets
- Match delayed beyond 7 days without conclusion: Resolves to 50-50 across all markets
Polymarket
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between MOUZ and Legacy in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 11 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Legacy. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
If over 2.5 maps are played in the IEM Cologne Major 2026: Legacy vs. MOUZ CS2 match originally scheduled for Jun 11, 2026 at 7:30 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between MOUZ and Legacy in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3, initially scheduled for June 11 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Legacy. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between MOUZ and Legacy in the IEM Cologne Major 2026, scheduled for Jun 11, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by July 11, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect real-time crowd sentiment and can diverge meaningfully from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability and profit margin, while prediction markets respond directly to trader demand. For this MOUZ vs Legacy match, the prediction market consensus may price in late-breaking roster news, recent form, or map pool dynamics faster than sportsbooks update their lines. Comparing both sources helps identify value and understand whether the broader betting public or decentralized traders hold stronger conviction on the series outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Limitless and Polymarket attract different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause price discrepancies even for the same underlying match. Polymarket's Map 1 Winner contract focuses on a single map, while Limitless tracks the full series outcome, creating distinct risk profiles and participant bases. Timing of information arrival, platform-specific incentives, and variations in how each venue's community weights team form or recent roster changes can also widen spreads. These differences typically narrow closer to match start as arbitrage traders exploit mispricings.
Key catalysts include last-minute roster changes or player substitutions, map pool announcements and veto strategy shifts, recent tournament results or head-to-head records, and live performance during earlier IEM Cologne matches. In-game events such as early map leads, tactical adjustments, or momentum swings during the series itself will drive sharp price movement. Team-specific factors like player form, weapon economy management, and anti-eco success rates influence trader conviction. Media reports on team preparation, bootcamp results, or injury status can also shift odds significantly before the match begins.