TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Counter-Strike: Global Offensive best-of-one match between M80 and Nebula In Chaox scheduled for March 12, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET as part of the Roman Imperium Cup Group A. Markets track the match winner, Map 1 total kills parity (odd/even), and Map 1 total rounds parity (odd/even).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines markets around a BO1 match with explicit Map 1 references (logically contradictory), while Kalshi defines markets around tournament-level outcomes (M80 or Nebula In Chaox winning the entire Roman Imperium Cup 2026), not the specific March 12 match. These are fundamentally different settlement events.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same outcome. Polymarket resolves on the March 12 match result and Map 1 statistics. Kalshi resolves on who wins the entire Roman Imperium Cup 2026 tournament. A team can lose the match but win the tournament. Request clarification from both platforms on whether Kalshi markets should reference only the March 12 match or the full tournament.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three markets reference Map 1 outcomes: match winner (M80 vs Nebula In Chaox), total kills parity (odd/even), and total rounds parity (odd/even). Primary source is HLTV.org with 2-hour fallback to consensus reporting. Cancellation, forfeit, or delay beyond 7 days triggers 50-50 resolution. However, a BO1 series contains only one map, making the Map 1 nomenclature semantically ambiguous.Kalshi:
Two markets resolve to Yes if M80 wins the Roman Imperium Cup 2026 OR if Nebula In Chaox wins the Roman Imperium Cup 2026, both referencing the March 12 match. These are tournament-level outcomes, not match-level outcomes. No source or edge-case logic provided. A team losing the March 12 match could still win the tournament, causing both markets to resolve Yes despite the match loss.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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