TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Legacy and MOUZ in the IEM Rio Group B, initially scheduled for April 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Legacy" if Legacy win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Legacy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on the scope of map completion and series resolution. Polymarket includes multiple markets with 50-50 resolution for maps not played due to series clinching, while Kalshi's single market focuses only on whether over 2.5 maps are played without explicit handling of clinching scenarios.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket's map-specific markets (Map 1/2/3 Odd/Even Rounds or Kills), be aware that these resolve 50-50 if the series ends before that map is needed. Kalshi's simpler Over/Under 2.5 maps market does not address this scenario explicitly, creating potential divergence if Legacy wins 2-0 before Map 3 is played.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers 10 granular markets (Map 1/2/3 Odd/Even Rounds, Map 1/2/3 Odd/Even Kills, Map 1/2 Winners, series winner, Games Total O/U 2.5, and two Map Handicap variants). Critically, Polymarket explicitly states that if a map is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches before Map 3), that market resolves 50-50: 'If Map 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Map 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on core logic but narrower scope: Kalshi offers a single market on whether over 2.5 maps are played. It states 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50,' but does not explicitly address the scenario where the series is clinched before Map 3 is played in regulation. Kalshi's market resolves Yes if 3 or more maps are played, otherwise Under, with no granular map-level resolution.
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