TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
Lavked and Hashiras compete in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs Round of 16, scheduled for April 9, 2026 at 4:00 AM EDT. The match outcome and individual map statistics (rounds, kills) will determine resolution across multiple linked markets. Official results from HLTV.org serve as the primary source, with credible reporting and video evidence as fallback within 2 hours of match conclusion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the tournament winner (Hashiras or Lavked winning EPL Series 6), while Polymarket resolves on a specific Round of 16 match between these teams with detailed map-by-map outcomes. The two platforms are measuring different scopes entirely.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets move together. Kalshi's YES resolves if either team wins the entire tournament. Polymarket's markets resolve on the specific head-to-head match outcome and map statistics. A team can win the tournament without winning this particular match, or vice versa. Verify which event you are actually betting on before placing trades.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi resolves on tournament-level outcome only. Both Kalshi markets (items 1–2) state: 'If Hashiras wins the European Pro League Series 6 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Lavked wins the European Pro League Series 6 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.' These markets do not reference the specific Lavked vs Hashiras match; they resolve based on who wins the entire EPL Series 6 tournament, regardless of the outcome of this particular Round of 16 matchup.Polymarket:
Aligned with none (Outlier): Polymarket resolves on the specific Round of 16 match between Lavked and Hashiras, with 11 distinct markets covering map winners, map statistics (kills, rounds), series handicaps, and total games. All Polymarket markets explicitly state 'This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Lavked and Hashiras in the European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 9 at 4:00AM ET' and resolve based on match-level outcomes, not tournament outcome.
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