TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ShindeN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Keyd and ShindeN in the ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 23 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Keyd" if Keyd win the match against ShindeN. This market will resolve to "ShindeN" if ShindeN win the match against Keyd. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on match winner (either team winning the series), while Polymarket resolves on specific map-level metrics (rounds, kills, map winners, handicaps) and series length. Kalshi's markets are logically contradictory—both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming they settle the same event. Kalshi's two markets (items 1-2) both resolve YES for any match outcome, making them unresolvable. Polymarket's markets are resolvable but depend on match completion and map play. Verify match actually occurs before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents two contradictory markets that both resolve YES regardless of outcome. Market 1 states 'If ShindeN wins...then resolves YES' and Market 2 states 'If Keyd wins...then resolves YES.' This creates a logical impossibility where every realistic scenario (ShindeN wins OR Keyd wins) triggers YES on at least one market. No resolution source, timing, or tie-breaking logic is provided. This market group is fundamentally unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard esports settlement practices: Polymarket resolves on specific, measurable map-level outcomes (total rounds, total kills, map winners, series length) with HLTV.org as primary source and 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. All markets include comprehensive edge cases (cancellation, forfeit, delay beyond 7 days, series clinch scenarios). Markets are logically independent and resolvable. Key quote: 'The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.'
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