TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Lavked (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Volume:
$44,215
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a best-of-three (BO3) Counter-Strike 2 match between illwill and Lavked in the PGL Astana 2026 European Closed Qualifier Playoffs, originally scheduled for March 31, 2026. The match determines which team advances in the tournament bracket. Resolution depends on identifying the official match winner as declared by PGL.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's match-winner market (items 1-2) resolves YES for either team winning, creating a logical contradiction where both outcomes cannot simultaneously occur. Polymarket's markets (items 3-25) use standard binary or multi-outcome resolution tied to specific match results and statistics. Kalshi's structure is fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's match-winner market. Its resolution rules state YES if Lavked wins OR YES if illwill wins — both cannot be true simultaneously. This is a data integrity failure. All Polymarket markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, rounds, kills, series total, handicaps, and match winner) are resolvable and internally consistent; use those instead.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's match-winner market (items 1-2) contains a logical contradiction. It states 'If Lavked wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If illwill wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes map to the same resolution (YES), making the market unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure. No other platform in this group shares this flawed logic.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard resolution practice: Polymarket offers 11 distinct markets (items 3-25) covering match winner (item 18-19), individual map winners (items 1-2, 6-7), map statistics (rounds and kills for Maps 1-3), series total (items 8-9), and handicaps (items 10-11, 24-25). Each market uses clear binary or multi-outcome logic tied to match results or statistics from HLTV.org, with consistent 50-50 fallback rules for cancellations, delays beyond 7 days, forfeits, or incomplete maps. All Polymarket markets are logically sound and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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