TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 4 match between Gentle Mates and NIP in the Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 1 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against NIP. This market will resolve to "NIP" if NIP win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on the core resolution metric. Kalshi resolves on whether over 2.5 maps are played (a series-level outcome), while Polymarket's markets resolve on individual map results, map statistics, and series outcomes—creating fundamentally different settlement scopes and dependencies.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's over/under 2.5 maps market, your outcome depends solely on total maps played. On Polymarket, individual map markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, kills, rounds) may resolve 50-50 if those maps are never played, creating asymmetric risk. Coordinate your positions carefully: a 2-0 series sweep resolves Kalshi UNDER but may leave Polymarket's Map 3 markets at 50-50.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi uses a single binary metric—total maps played in the series. The market resolves YES if 3 or more maps are played, NO if fewer than 3 are played. No map-level granularity or individual map statistics are considered. Resolution source is not explicitly stated but defaults to official match records.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six separate markets covering series outcome, individual map winners (Map 1, Map 2), map-level statistics (kills and rounds for each map), and map handicaps. Each market has its own resolution logic tied to specific map completion and statistical outcomes. Primary source is HLTV.org with a 2-hour fallback window to credible reporting and video evidence.
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