TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A
Volume:
$3,050,845
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Counter-Strike: Global Offensive Best-of-3 match between Gentle Mates and G2 at IEM Rio 2026 Group A, originally scheduled for April 13, 2026 at 9:00–10:00 AM EDT. The match comprises multiple prediction markets tracking series outcome, individual map winners, map-level statistics (kills, rounds), and aggregate series metrics (total maps, map handicap).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events: Kalshi settles on whether either team wins the entire IEM Rio 2026 tournament (tournament-level outcome), while Polymarket settles on specific match details between Gentle Mates and G2 in the Upper bracket quarterfinal (match-level outcomes). This creates a logical contradiction where Kalshi's binary YES/NO cannot be reconciled with Polymarket's granular map-by-map and series-level markets.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi's YES resolves if either team wins the entire tournament; Polymarket's markets resolve based on the specific BO3 match result and map statistics. A Kalshi YES does not guarantee any specific Polymarket outcome, and vice versa. Treat these as separate, non-correlated events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's single market resolves YES if either G2 or Gentle Mates wins the entire IEM Rio 2026 tournament, regardless of the specific match outcome between them. The resolution condition is 'If G2 wins the IEM Rio 2026' OR 'If Gentle Mates wins the IEM Rio 2026', making it a tournament-level outcome market, not a match-level market. Key quote: 'If G2 wins the IEM Rio 2026: G2 vs. Gentle Mates CS2 match originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Gentle Mates wins the IEM Rio 2026: G2 vs. Gentle Mates CS2 match originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 9:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket's 10 markets all resolve based on the specific Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Gentle Mates and G2 scheduled for April 13 at 10:00 AM ET, including match winner, individual map winners, map-level kill/round statistics, series length, and map handicaps. These are match-level outcomes independent of tournament results. Key quote: 'This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Gentle Mates and G2 in the IEM Rio Group A, initially scheduled for April 13 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to Gentle Mates if Gentle Mates win the match against G2. This market will resolve to G2 if G2 win the match against Gentle Mates.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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