TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.4b

24H VOL:

$234,875,025

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,205,330,693

501,301

Markets across

13,585

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,825

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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Trending

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Volume:
$55,116
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Gentle Mates and ASTRAL in the Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 29 at 1:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against ASTRAL. This market will resolve to "ASTRAL" if ASTRAL win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi's match winner market contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket's equivalent market has coherent binary logic.

Hero Tip:

Do not trade the Kalshi match winner market. All match-outcome dependent markets (match winner, map winners, series length) should reference Polymarket's definitions and HLTV.org as the authoritative source. Confirm the match is not canceled, forfeited, or delayed beyond April 29 + 7 days before settlement.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Match winner market states: 'If ASTRAL wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Gentle Mates wins...resolves to Yes'. This creates a tautology where any match result produces Yes, violating binary market logic. Quote: 'If ASTRAL wins the Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier 2026: ASTRAL vs. Gentle Mates CS2 match...then the market resolves to Yes. If Gentle Mates wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Match winner market (Question 8) correctly defines binary outcomes: resolves to Gentle Mates if Gentle Mates wins, resolves to ASTRAL if ASTRAL wins, with 50-50 fallback for cancellation/tie/7-day delay. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Gentle Mates if Gentle Mates win the match against ASTRAL. This market will resolve to ASTRAL if ASTRAL win the match against Gentle Mates.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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