TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket round 1 match between FlyQuest RED and Sakura Esports in the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 20 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest RED" if FlyQuest RED win the match against Sakura Esports. This market will resolve to "Sakura Esports" if Sakura Esports win the match against FlyQuest RED. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the tournament winner (ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 2026 overall), while Polymarket resolves on specific match outcomes and map-level statistics (FlyQuest RED vs Sakura Esports BO3 match). These are logically incompatible: Kalshi's YES condition requires either team to win the entire tournament, whereas Polymarket's markets require the specific match to be played and completed.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi bets on tournament victory; Polymarket bets on match and map outcomes. A team can win the BO3 match but lose the tournament, or vice versa. Verify which event you are actually betting on before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if either Sakura Esports or FlyQuest RED wins the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 2026 tournament overall. The resolution condition is 'If [team] wins the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 2026: Sakura Esports vs. FlyQuest RED CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This conflates the tournament outcome with the match outcome and creates logical ambiguity: both YES conditions are identical regardless of which team wins, making the market effectively binary on tournament victory rather than match-specific.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves on specific match outcomes (Map 1 Winner, Map 2 Winner, overall Match Winner, BO3 series result) and map-level statistics (Odd/Even Total Rounds per map, Odd/Even Total Kills per map, Games Total O/U 2.5, Map Handicaps). All markets explicitly reference 'the Counter-Strike Upper bracket round 1 match between FlyQuest RED and Sakura Esports' scheduled for March 20 at 10:00PM ET. Resolution sources are HLTV.org with a 2-hour publication window. These markets resolve 50-50 if the match is not played, canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or forfeited.
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