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$1,416,970,024

400,720

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30,097

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
kalshi
polymarket

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B

Volume:
$1,174,850

Match Winner

 - Polymarket

Match Winner - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 14, 2026

Closed: Apr 13, 11:25 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$514,775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$514,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$88,723
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Map 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 2.5 maps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,712
N/A
N/A
$3,053
Settled
No
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Rounds

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

Aurora Gaming and HOTU compete in a Counter-Strike best-of-three (BO3) match at IEM Rio 2026, initially scheduled for April 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET (4:30 PM EDT per Kalshi). The match determines advancement in the Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 of Group B. Resolution is based on official HLTV.org reporting, with credible consensus reporting permitted if HLTV does not publish results within 2 hours of match conclusion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket differ in scope and market structure. Kalshi offers a single binary market on whether over 2.5 maps are played, while Polymarket provides nine granular markets covering individual map winners, round/kill odd-even outcomes, and series handicap. The platforms resolve the same underlying match but settle different questions with different thresholds and conditions.Hero tip: If betting on Kalshi's O/U 2.5 maps market, your outcome depends solely on total maps played (3+ = Yes, <3 = No). On Polymarket, you can bet specific map outcomes, round parities, and kill counts — each with independent 50-50 resolution conditions if maps aren't played. Ensure you understand which specific question you're betting on each platform, as they are not interchangeable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary market on series length. It resolves YES if over 2.5 maps are played (i.e., 3 or more maps), and NO otherwise. The market uses HLTV as primary source and resolves based on the completed match result without granular map-level conditions. Key quote: 'If over 2.5 maps are played in the IEM Rio 2026: HOTU vs. Aurora Gaming CS2 match originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 4:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers nine separate markets covering Map 1 winner, Map 2 winner, Map 1/2/3 odd-even rounds, Map 1/2/3 odd-even kills, series winner, series handicap, and total games O/U 2.5. Each map-specific market includes independent 50-50 resolution conditions if that map is not played (e.g., due to series clinch, forfeit, or cancellation). Key quote: 'If Map 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Map 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.