TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B
Volume:
$1,174,850
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Aurora Gaming and HOTU compete in a Counter-Strike best-of-three (BO3) match at IEM Rio 2026, initially scheduled for April 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET (4:30 PM EDT per Kalshi). The match determines advancement in the Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 3 of Group B. Resolution is based on official HLTV.org reporting, with credible consensus reporting permitted if HLTV does not publish results within 2 hours of match conclusion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket differ in scope and market structure. Kalshi offers a single binary market on whether over 2.5 maps are played, while Polymarket provides nine granular markets covering individual map winners, round/kill odd-even outcomes, and series handicap. The platforms resolve the same underlying match but settle different questions with different thresholds and conditions.Hero Tip:
If betting on Kalshi's O/U 2.5 maps market, your outcome depends solely on total maps played (3+ = Yes, <3 = No). On Polymarket, you can bet specific map outcomes, round parities, and kill counts — each with independent 50-50 resolution conditions if maps aren't played. Ensure you understand which specific question you're betting on each platform, as they are not interchangeable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary market on series length. It resolves YES if over 2.5 maps are played (i.e., 3 or more maps), and NO otherwise. The market uses HLTV as primary source and resolves based on the completed match result without granular map-level conditions. Key quote: 'If over 2.5 maps are played in the IEM Rio 2026: HOTU vs. Aurora Gaming CS2 match originally scheduled for Apr 13, 2026 at 4:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers nine separate markets covering Map 1 winner, Map 2 winner, Map 1/2/3 odd-even rounds, Map 1/2/3 odd-even kills, series winner, series handicap, and total games O/U 2.5. Each map-specific market includes independent 50-50 resolution conditions if that map is not played (e.g., due to series clinch, forfeit, or cancellation). Key quote: 'If Map 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Map 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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