TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.3b

24H VOL:

$158,613,015

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,206,641,323

499,459

Markets across

13,676

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,789

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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Trending

Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Lavked (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs

Volume:
$56,699
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between ARCRED and Lavked in the European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 14 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ARCRED" if ARCRED win the match against Lavked. This market will resolve to "Lavked" if Lavked win the match against ARCRED. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi's resolution criteria are logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if either Lavked wins OR ARCRED wins the match, which means the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes. Polymarket correctly specifies that the market resolves to the name of the winning team (ARCRED or Lavked), creating a binary outcome. This fundamental logical failure makes Kalshi's market unresolvable as written.

Hero Tip:

Do not trade on Kalshi's match winner market — it contains a logical contradiction that makes settlement impossible. Polymarket's equivalent market is resolvable and should be used instead. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi support before the event, as the market may require manual intervention or cancellation.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's resolution criteria state 'If Lavked wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If ARCRED wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning both possible outcomes resolve to YES. This is a logical contradiction that violates basic binary market structure. Key quote: 'If Lavked wins the European Pro League Series 6 2026... then the market resolves to Yes. If ARCRED wins the European Pro League Series 6 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Aligned with standard binary logic: Polymarket correctly specifies that the market resolves to 'ARCRED' if ARCRED wins and 'Lavked' if Lavked wins, creating a proper binary outcome. The market also includes comprehensive edge-case handling for cancellations, forfeits, ties, and delays beyond 7 days (50-50 resolution). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to ARCRED if ARCRED win the match against Lavked. This market will resolve to Lavked if Lavked win the match against ARCRED.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.