TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
kalshi

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Volume:
$110,563

Above 2.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,265
N/A
N/A
$10,777
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,439
N/A
N/A
$2,624
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,069
N/A
N/A
$3,237
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,997
N/A
N/A
$3,398
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,581
N/A
N/A
$3,680
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,975
N/A
N/A
$4,132
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,660
N/A
N/A
$2,971
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,278
N/A
N/A
$2,610
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,541
N/A
N/A
$3,956
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,934
N/A
N/A
$2,918
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,473
N/A
N/A
$1,979
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,295
N/A
N/A
$1,311
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,306
N/A
N/A
$2,151
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,735
N/A
N/A
$2,216
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,014
N/A
N/A
$981
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether core inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, will exceed 2.1% on a year-over-year basis for the twelve months ending July 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that core CPI will be above 2.1%—stands at 99.0%. The market resolves according to the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the twelve-month period ending July 2026. Watch for the official CPI release scheduled for mid-August 2026, which will provide the definitive year-over-year core inflation figure needed to settle this contract.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy, measured year-over-year for the twelve months ending July 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. Each outcome corresponds to a specific core inflation threshold: the market resolves Yes if the reported core CPI exceeds the threshold for that outcome. All outcomes use the same underlying data source and measurement period. In the event of a federal government shutdown that impacts data reliability, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of either the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from consensus economist forecasts. While traditional analyst surveys provide point estimates based on econometric models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from participants with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability on Kalshi to Bloomberg consensus or Federal Reserve Survey of Primary Dealers estimates can reveal whether markets are pricing in more hawkish or dovish inflation outcomes than the mainstream consensus. This gap sometimes signals market skepticism about official guidance or emerging data trends analysts have not yet fully incorporated.

The Core inflation in July 2026 market resolves on Aug 12, 2026, following the official release of the July 2026 Consumer Price Index data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome is determined by the year-over-year percentage change in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Resolution occurs automatically once the BLS publishes the official figure, and contracts settle according to whether the reported rate meets or exceeds the specified threshold.

Core inflation odds will respond to monthly CPI releases, employment reports, wage growth data, and housing cost trends leading up to July 2026. Federal Reserve policy decisions and forward guidance significantly influence inflation expectations; rate cuts or holds reshape the outlook for price pressures. Oil and commodity price swings, supply chain disruptions, and labor market tightness all feed into core inflation dynamics. Additionally, shifts in consumer demand, rent inflation trajectories, and services pricing will drive trader positioning. Any surprise in these economic indicators could shift market odds substantially as participants recalibrate their inflation forecasts.