TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 12:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how decisively either team performs in the first quarter of an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team within the first 15 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of the Colorado vs Baylor college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified point differential threshold defined in each individual market—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—for either Baylor or Colorado. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual first-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting an equitable settlement rather than a definitive win or loss. The markets exclusively consider first-quarter performance, disregarding any points scored in subsequent quarters.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which represents their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders, aims to represent the true probability of the spread, though discrepancies can emerge due to differing information or risk assessments. Polls and analysts’ predictions often fall in line with the prediction market’s assessment, as they also attempt to forecast the likely outcome based on available data, but this market provides a real-money incentive for accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, indicated by the bid and ask sizes, shows the volume available at different price points, providing insight into potential price movements and liquidity.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Colorado vs Baylor game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official game statistics and reported by reputable sports news sources. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Colorado or Baylor teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also move the market. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate shifts in sentiment and lead to price adjustments in this market.