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406,019

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5

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Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$93,606

Colorado wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 18, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 9:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Colorado wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,002
N/A
N/A
$10,295
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Colorado Rockies

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
97¢
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Chicago Cubs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
97.9¢
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Chicago C wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,732
N/A
N/A
$67,196
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,512
N/A
N/A
$2,589
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
97¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with separate binary and ternary market structures across platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Additionally, game date differs between platforms (June 16 vs June 17, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until the market logic is corrected. The current terms make it impossible to determine a valid resolution. Confirm the official MLB game date with MLB.com. Polymarket's ternary structure is logically sound and resolvable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes for all three outcomes (Colorado win, Chicago Cubs win, or tie). This is logically impossible and renders the market unresolvable. Scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT.
  • Polymarket: Ternary outcome market: resolves to Colorado Rockies if Rockies lead after 5 innings, Chicago Cubs if Cubs lead after 5 innings, or Draw if tied. Scheduled for June 17 at 8:05 PM ET. Includes provisions for postponement and cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 17 at 8:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Colorado Rockies" if the Colorado Rockies is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The Colorado vs Chicago C First 5 Innings event resolves based on which team leads or whether the score is tied at the end of the first five innings of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT. The Colorado strike resolves to Yes if Colorado scores more runs than Chicago C through five innings. The Chicago C strike resolves to Yes if Chicago C scores more runs than Colorado through five innings. The Tie strike resolves to Yes if both teams have scored an equal number of runs at the end of five innings; when a tie occurs, the Tie strike resolves to Yes and all team strikes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer pricing rather than sportsbook spreads and juice. Traders directly set odds by buying and selling shares, eliminating the house margin typical of traditional betting. This often produces tighter, more efficient pricing—especially for niche outcomes like first-five-innings winners. However, sportsbooks may offer faster liquidity and fixed odds, while prediction markets reward early movers and reward accurate forecasting. Both reflect expected probability, but the mechanisms and incentive structures differ meaningfully.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Kalshi and Polymarket may have varying user bases with distinct information sets or time-zone activity patterns. Platform-specific fees, minimum trade sizes, and UI design also influence how quickly prices converge. Additionally, each platform's rules and dispute-resolution processes can create subtle differences in how traders perceive tail risks. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit pricing inefficiencies, but real-time divergence is normal and often signals where informed traders see value.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and injury updates will shift trader positioning before first pitch. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and recent team performance in early innings all influence expectations. Live action during the first five innings—early runs, errors, or momentum swings—will drive rapid repricing as new information emerges. Trades by informed bettors responding to in-game developments can also trigger sharp moves. Monitor team news and pregame conditions closely, as this market is highly sensitive to factors affecting early-game scoring dynamics.