TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 10:28 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many unranked college football teams manage to defeat ranked opponents during a specific week of the season. The outcomes depend on the number of upsets achieved, with each market requiring a different minimum number of such victories to settle positively.
These markets resolve based on the performance of unranked college football teams against Top 25 ranked opponents during Week 3 of the 2026-27 season. The AP Top 25 Poll ranking status, as determined by the Week 3 poll release prior to the games, defines which teams are considered 'ranked.' If the Week 3 poll isn’t released before the games, the most recent published AP Poll is used instead. Each market has a specific threshold—ranging from one to five upsets—for unranked teams to achieve in order for the market to resolve as 'Yes.' If the required number of upsets occurs, the market settles positively; otherwise, it settles negatively. All markets operate independently, with their resolution contingent solely on meeting or exceeding their respective numerical thresholds for unranked team victories over Top 25 opponents in that week.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. Traders on Kalshi may price in factors beyond simple point spreads, such as team form, injuries, or weather conditions. While sportsbooks set fixed odds based on analytical models, the prediction market lets participants bet directly on the likelihood of upsets occurring, sometimes showing sharper or more volatile adjustments as new information emerges.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the games are completed and results are verifiable from credible public reporting. Each upset’s success or failure is evaluated based on final scores from Week 3 matchups involving unranked teams facing ranked opponents. The market settles automatically once all relevant games have concluded and official results are widely reported.
Injuries to key players, weather forecasts for game day, and last-minute coaching decisions could all shift this market. High-profile performances from underdog teams or surprising starting lineups may also cause rapid price changes. As the games approach, any news that alters the perceived likelihood of an upset — whether from practice reports or analyst commentary — can move trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds on Kalshi.