TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a professional CONMEBOL Libertadores soccer match between Club Nacional de Football and CD Tolima scheduled for April 14, 2026. The match will be resolved based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation rules (draw resolves YES on cancellation; wins resolve NO), while Kalshi uses a unified three-outcome market. Both platforms agree on the 90-minute + stoppage time scope and official source hierarchy, but the market structure and cancellation payout logic differ materially.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, the draw market acts as a cancellation hedge (YES payout if game canceled), while win markets do not. Cross-platform traders should account for this structural difference when comparing implied probabilities. Both platforms defer to official CONMEBOL statistics within 2 hours, then credible consensus reporting.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Nacional win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Tolima win YES/NO). Asymmetric cancellation: draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up; win markets resolve NO under same condition. Resolution source: official CONMEBOL statistics within 2 hours, then credible reporting consensus.Kalshi:
Single unified three-outcome market: Nacional wins resolves YES, Tolima wins resolves YES, or Tie resolves YES. No explicit cancellation clause provided; market structure implies only one outcome can occur. Resolution source: official CONMEBOL statistics for the game originally scheduled April 14, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.