TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 21, 10:14 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Club Nacional de Football and CA Tigre, scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Nacional de Football" if Club Nacional de Football are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CA Tigre" if CA Tigre are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Club Nacional de Football and CA Tigre, scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Nacional de Football" if Club Nacional de Football are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CA Tigre" if CA Tigre are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance liability and profit margins, while prediction markets price outcomes based on trader consensus and real-money incentives. In this market, traders are directly rewarded for accuracy, which can lead to sharper pricing than bookmakers offer. However, sportsbooks may incorporate live data and injury reports faster. Comparing both sources helps identify where public perception and market-derived probabilities align or diverge.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into one outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. Each share costs between 0 and 1 dollar, with the total of all outcome prices summing to 1 dollar. This mechanism ensures that the market price directly reflects the aggregate belief of all participants. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information about team form or match conditions.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once the match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is confirmed when credible public sources report which team scored first. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution is binary: either Club Nacional de Football or CA Tigre will be confirmed as the first scorer. Early resolution may occur if one team is disqualified or the match is abandoned before any goal is scored.
Team news such as injuries, suspensions, or lineup announcements can shift trader expectations significantly. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage all influence perceived scoring likelihood. Weather conditions on match day may favor one team's attacking style. Pre-match analysis from credible sports analysts can trigger buying or selling waves. Late-breaking tactical changes or manager statements sometimes spark volatility. As kickoff approaches, the market typically tightens around the most probable outcome, with smaller moves reflecting final adjustments to available information.