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406,065

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA?

Volume:
$1,877,781

Club Bolívar

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 10:21 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Club Bolívar

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$338,203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Reg Time: Bolivar

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$322,359
N/A
N/A
$202,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Reg Time: Gremio

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$754,450
N/A
N/A
$498,881
Settled
No
polymarket

Grêmio FBPA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$154,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reg Time: Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$279,773
N/A
N/A
$185,250
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Club Bolívar will win their CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer match against Grêmio FBPA on July 23, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for Club Bolívar to win stands at 100.0%, with Grêmio FBPA at 0.1%, drawing data from Polymarket and Kalshi and resolving according to CONMEBOL Sudamericana rules. Watch the match on July 23, 2026, as this will determine the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses three independent binary markets with asymmetric cancellation rules (draw resolves Yes on cancellation; wins resolve No). Kalshi uses three mutually exclusive outcome markets with no explicit cancellation rule. Both platforms agree on the core match outcome evaluation (90 minutes plus stoppage time, official CONMEBOL/governing body statistics), but differ in market structure and edge-case handling.Hero tip: On Polymarket, the draw market is a hedge against cancellation—it resolves Yes if the game is canceled. On Kalshi, the cancellation rule is undefined; contact support before trading. Both platforms use official CONMEBOL statistics as the primary source, with a 2-hour grace period before credible reporting consensus is used. Ensure your position accounts for postponement risk (markets remain open) versus cancellation risk (asymmetric payoff).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets (Bolívar win, Draw, Grêmio win) with asymmetric cancellation: draw resolves Yes if canceled; win markets resolve No if canceled. All reference official CONMEBOL statistics within 2 hours, then credible reporting consensus. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (draw) versus 'this market will resolve No' (wins).
  • Kalshi: Three mutually exclusive outcome markets (Bolívar wins, Grêmio wins, Tie) where exactly one resolves Yes. No explicit cancellation rule provided. Evaluation is 90 minutes plus stoppage time, professional CONMEBOL Sudamericana match. Quote: 'If Bolivar wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Gremio wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for Thursday, July 23, 2026 between Club Bolívar and Grêmio FBPA.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final score of the Bolivar vs Gremio professional CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not including extra time or penalties. Each outcome—Bolivar win, Gremio win, or tie—resolves to Yes if that result occurs at the end of regulation. If the game ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio match across Polymarket and Kalshi, enabling traders to monitor real-time odds and consensus views on the match outcome. Both venues allow participants to buy and sell shares tied to the result, with prices reflecting the collective assessment of match probabilities. The cross-platform view helps bettors identify pricing patterns and track how sentiment shifts as the event approaches, offering transparency into how different prediction markets value each possible outcome.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets derive prices from continuous trader supply and demand. This market-driven approach often reflects sharper consensus on true probabilities, since traders risk real capital on their conviction. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports, and their odds include built-in margins. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbook lines can reveal where public perception diverges from professional oddsmakers.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can cause temporary price gaps on the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have distinct user bases with varying information access or risk appetites, leading one venue to price the outcome more bullishly than the other. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these spreads, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent prices from converging instantly. Monitoring both platforms reveals where consensus is strongest and where outlier pricing may signal opportunity or risk.

Key injury announcements, team lineup changes, or tactical shifts announced by either club can trigger sharp price moves. Recent form, head-to-head records, and weather conditions closer to match day often influence trader positioning. Major news—such as a player suspension, coaching change, or venue alteration—typically causes rapid repricing across both platforms. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can also sway retail traders, while professional bettors may react to subtle statistical updates or betting-market activity on related events. Monitoring team social channels and sports news will help traders anticipate volatility.