TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$236,615,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,344,513,070
577,941
Markets across
14,530
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,090
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a La Liga soccer match between Club Atlético de Madrid and Real Sociedad de Fútbol scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the three possible outcomes: Atlético win, Real Sociedad win, or draw, all resolved based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market explicitly resolves to Yes on full cancellation, while Kalshi provides no cancellation guidance across its three outcome markets. This creates potential for misaligned settlement if the match is canceled with no make-up date.Hero Tip:
Obtain written confirmation from both platforms on their cancellation protocol before March 7, 2026. Specifically: (1) Does Kalshi void all three markets or resolve them to No? (2) Does Polymarket's draw-resolves-to-Yes rule apply even if Kalshi treats cancellation differently? (3) Will both platforms issue refunds or honor the divergent rules as written?Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets (Atlético win, Real Sociedad win, draw). Draw market explicitly states: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "Yes".' Atlético and Real Sociedad win markets resolve to No on cancellation. Resolution source: official La Liga statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.Kalshi:
Three outcome markets presented as a complete set (Atlético win, Real Sociedad win, Tie). Each resolves to Yes if its outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Logical implication: cancellation protocol is undefined, creating settlement ambiguity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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