TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 1, 12:57 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for a professional soccer match between Club Atletico La Paz and Alacranes. The focus is on determining whether either team secures a victory by a specific goal differential. The result depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple outcome scenarios based on the goal differential in the Club Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for July 31, 2026. All markets resolve based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from consideration. Four distinct criteria define potential resolutions: Club Atletico La Paz winning by more than 2.5 goals, Club Atletico La Paz winning by more than 1.5 goals, Alacranes winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Alacranes winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market independently assesses its specific threshold, with resolution contingent upon whether the actual goal margin meets or exceeds the stated requirement. The governing body is the Liga de Expansion MX, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of associated trademarks, logos, and brand names.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced, trader-driven view of the spread compared to traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set their lines based on sharp handicappers and public action, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their beliefs, which can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent performance, injuries, or other game-specific developments.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on prices for each possible spread outcome. The current implied probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, adjusting dynamically as new information emerges about team form, weather conditions, or key player status.
Injuries to key players, changes in coaching strategy, or even weather conditions that affect gameplay could shift this market. Strong recent performances by either team, betting trends on Kalshi, and any last-minute lineup announcements may also cause significant price movements as traders adjust their expectations ahead of the final whistle.