TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 11:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will dominate the first half of an upcoming soccer match by winning by a margin of more than 1.5 goals. It specifically tracks the performance of both teams in the initial 45 minutes of play, ignoring any events from the second half. The outcome depends solely on the goal difference within this timeframe.
The event determines whether either Club Atletico La Paz or Alacranes will secure a first-half victory by a margin exceeding 1.5 goals in their scheduled Liga de Expansion MX match. If Club Atletico La Paz achieves this dominant lead, the first market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Alacranes accomplish the same, the second market resolves to Yes. Both markets exclusively consider goals scored during the first half and disregard any scoring in the second half. Should the match be canceled or rescheduled beyond 48 hours from its original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants based on the defined conditions.
On Kalshi, traders in the first half spread market price outcomes based on their expectations of the match dynamics. Sportsbook odds often reflect broader public sentiment and professional handicapping models, which can differ from the more granular, real-time adjustments seen in prediction markets. While sportsbooks may incorporate additional factors like historical performance and current form, this market offers a direct insight into how informed traders are positioning themselves, often leading to tighter spreads and more volatile pricing as the game approaches.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on the official match statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the point spread for the first half.
Several key signals could shift this market before Aug 1, 2026. Injuries to star players, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions affecting gameplay could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, pre-match media coverage highlighting team form or tactical adjustments may cause rapid shifts in pricing. As the match date nears, any last-minute roster updates or strategic announcements are likely to drive volume and volatility in this market, reflecting the latest information available to participants.