TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 6:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will outperform the other by a specific margin in the second half of an upcoming football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the point difference after the second half concludes, making it a test of late-game strategy and performance.
All markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified Cleveland vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold: if Tampa Bay wins the second half by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 20.5 points), that respective market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Cleveland wins the second half by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points), the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these resolutions. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and no market is influenced by the full-game result or the first half's scoring.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to align with those found at sportsbooks, but subtle differences often emerge. Sportsbooks incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while Kalshi allows traders to directly set prices based on their own predictions. This can sometimes lead to more efficient price discovery in this market. However, it’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, with both prediction markets and sportsbooks reflecting similar probabilities, especially when considering the spread for this game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the second-half spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, and the spread between the buy and sell prices represents the current transaction cost.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the second half of the Cleveland versus Tampa Bay game will be used to determine which contracts will pay out. The market will settle based on the official result reported by the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market.