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Closed: Sep 13, 3:50 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of Deshaun Watson in a specific NFL game between Cleveland and Jacksonville. They focus on the number of passing touchdowns he throws during the match. The outcomes vary based on whether he records one or more, two or more, or three or more passing touchdowns.
The markets evaluate Deshaun Watson's passing touchdown performance in the Cleveland vs Jacksonville NFL game scheduled for September 13, 2026, with three tiers: 1+, 2+, and 3+ touchdowns. If Watson achieves the specified threshold in any of these markets, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if Watson is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Watson takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing touchdowns he records during the game. These rules ensure clarity and fairness in resolving the markets based on Watson’s in-game performance, while accounting for pre-snap inactivity scenarios.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many participants. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the likely outcome, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the volume available at various price points, giving insight into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by each team in the game will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders will be able to see the final result and any relevant supporting information on Kalshi after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in offensive strategies could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, driven by informed traders, can quickly shift the probabilities reflected in the market prices.