TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$6,256

Milwaukee Brewers

 - Polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 7:40 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$33
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Milwaukee -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,574
N/A
N/A
$2,533
Settled
No
kalshi

Cleveland -1.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
$1,804
Settled
No
kalshi

Cleveland -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,125
N/A
N/A
$1,095
Settled
No
kalshi

Milwaukee -2.5 first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$681
N/A
N/A
$674
Settled
No
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.8¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.8¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT. Markets track whether either team wins by a margin, or whether the game is tied after 5 complete innings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses run-margin thresholds (1.5+ and 2.5+ runs) to determine Yes resolution, while Polymarket resolves on any lead margin or a tie. This creates a material gap: a 1-run lead is a Yes on Polymarket but a No on Kalshi.Hero tip: Focus on the run differential outcome. If you expect a close game (1-run margin), Polymarket and Kalshi will diverge. Kalshi requires at least a 2-run cushion for a decisive Yes; Polymarket resolves Yes on any lead. Check your platform before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No based on run margin thresholds. Resolves Yes only if Cleveland wins by more than 1.5 runs OR Milwaukee wins by more than 1.5 runs (or the 2.5-run variants). Implies that 1-run margins and ties resolve to No. Key Quote: 'If Cleveland wins by more than 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the Cleveland vs Milwaukee professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three-way outcome: Cleveland Guardians (any lead), Milwaukee Brewers (any lead), or Draw (tied). Resolves on the leader at end of 5th inning regardless of margin. Includes explicit tie resolution. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning... If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw".'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers, scheduled for June 16 at 7:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the run differential at the end of the first 5 innings of the Cleveland vs Milwaukee game scheduled for Jun 16, 2026 at 7:40 PM EDT. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified team wins by more than the stated margin during the first 5 innings. Milwaukee outcomes cover margins greater than 2.5 and 1.5 runs, while Cleveland outcomes cover the same margins in the opposite direction. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect live trader sentiment and real-money stakes, often diverging from traditional sportsbook lines because they update continuously and incorporate diverse participant views. Sportsbooks set fixed odds designed to balance action and lock in profit margins, whereas this market reprices dynamically as new information emerges. Comparing the two reveals whether public perception on the five-inning outcome differs from professional oddsmakers' assessments, making prediction markets useful for identifying potential value or consensus shifts before the first pitch.

Starting lineups and bullpen availability announcements typically shift odds before first pitch, as trader expectations adjust to pitching matchups and recent form. Injury reports, weather conditions affecting ball flight, and pregame betting action on full-game outcomes all influence five-inning positioning. During the game itself, early runs, pitcher performance, and in-game substitutions drive rapid repricing. Late-breaking lineup changes or weather delays can also trigger sharp moves as traders reassess the probability of each team's early-inning advantage.