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406,065

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2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
predict
polymarket

Will the Cleveland vs Miami game go to extra innings?

Volume:
$4,326

Cleveland Guardians

 - Polymarket

Cleveland Guardians - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 4:10 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
10¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$3,864
$472
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Miami Marlins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Game goes to extra innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
$218
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group tracks the outcome of an MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM ET. Markets are split across platforms with fundamentally different scopes: some resolve on the full-game winner, while others resolve on the score status at the end of the 5th inning only.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Three distinct market scopes: Predict and Kalshi resolve on full-game winner; Polymarket resolves on the score at the end of the 5th inning only. These are fundamentally different settlement criteria and cannot be unified.Hero tip: These markets measure different things. Polymarket's first-5-inning outcome is independent of the full-game winner. Do not assume correlation. Monitor the 5th inning conclusion separately from final game result.

Critical divergence points:

  • Predict: Full-game winner resolution. Resolves to Cleveland Guardians if they win the game, Miami Marlins if they win. Postponed games remain open; canceled games or ties resolve 50-50. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Cleveland Guardians if the Cleveland Guardians win the game.'
  • Kalshi: Extra innings indicator. Resolves Yes if the game goes to extra innings (beyond 9 innings). This is a binary yes/no on game length, not on winner. Key Quote: 'If Cleveland and Miami go to extra innings in the Cleveland vs Miami professional baseball game...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: First 5 innings leader only. Three outcomes: Cleveland Guardians if leading after 5 innings, Miami Marlins if leading after 5 innings, Draw if tied after 5 innings. Full-game result is irrelevant. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Cleveland Guardians if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If Cleveland and Miami go to extra innings in the Cleveland vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Predict

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Frequently asked questions

The Cleveland-Miami first 5 innings market aggregates trader predictions across Kalshi and Predict, tracking which team will lead after the first five innings of play. This market pools volume of $4,326 across both venues, with 24-hour volume at $4,149, reflecting active interest in early-game momentum. Traders use these platforms to express conviction on whether Cleveland or Miami will hold the advantage through the fifth inning, independent of the final game outcome. The dashboard displays real-time odds shifts as new information emerges, allowing participants to monitor consensus sentiment and adjust positions accordingly.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they serve distinct purposes. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. On this market, odds reflect what participants collectively believe will happen in the first five innings, not what a bookmaker needs to profit. Prediction market prices often incorporate longer-term information and niche insights, whereas sportsbooks may emphasize sharp action and public betting patterns. Neither is inherently more accurate; they simply represent different mechanisms for pricing uncertainty.

Injury announcements, lineup changes, and weather updates can shift odds significantly before first pitch. Starting pitcher performance history, recent team form, and head-to-head records in early innings all influence trader positioning. Breaking news about roster availability or field conditions may trigger rapid repricing as participants reassess early-game advantage. Real-time game action—early runs, defensive plays, or momentum swings—will drive price movement once play begins. Monitor team news and weather forecasts closely, as these catalysts often move this market faster than sportsbook lines.