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406,019

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins?

Volume:
$3,032,327

Cleveland

 - Kalshi

Cleveland - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 7:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cleveland

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,130,101
N/A
N/A
$694,570
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$501,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.6¢
N/A
$345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Miami

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,351,171
N/A
N/A
$795,536
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 7.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,357
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25

Intro

This market tracks whether the Cleveland Guardians will beat the Miami Marlins by at least 3.5 runs in their July 11, 2026 matchup at 4:10 PM ET. Aggregated data from Polymarket and Kalshi shows a 50.0% consensus probability for the Guardians to cover the spread. The underlying game result will be resolved according to MLB.com official records. Watch for any weather delays or roster changes announced before first pitch on July 11, as these factors can shift both team performance expectations and market pricing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's moneyline market contains a logical contradiction (both Cleveland and Miami wins resolve to Yes), making it fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket provides two separate, well-defined markets with clear edge-case rules; Kalshi offers only one market with broken resolution logic.Hero tip: Trade only on Polymarket for this event group. Kalshi's market is unresolvable as written and presents unacceptable counterparty risk. Monitor Kalshi for a corrected market description before engaging.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Two distinct markets: (1) Moneyline—resolves to Cleveland Guardians if they win, Miami Marlins if they win, 50-50 if canceled/tied. (2) First-Inning Run—resolves Yes if any run scores in inning 1, No otherwise, 50-50 if canceled. Postponed games remain open. Primary source: official MLB statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single moneyline market with contradictory logic: 'If Cleveland wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Miami wins...resolves to Yes.' No guidance on postponement, cancellation, or tie outcomes. Market is logically unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Cleveland wins the Cleveland vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. If Miami wins the Cleveland vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This market covers the Cleveland vs Miami professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. Each team has a corresponding market that resolves to Yes if that team wins the game. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two days away, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of a bookmaker setting fixed lines, thousands of traders continuously adjust odds based on new information, injuries, weather, and public sentiment. This often produces sharper, more efficient prices than static sportsbook lines, especially as events draw closer. However, prediction markets typically lack the liquidity and promotional incentives of major sportsbooks, so comparing both can reveal valuable discrepancies for informed bettors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks that influence how prices evolve. Polymarket and Kalshi may also process new information at different speeds depending on their user base's reaction time and depth of liquidity in specific outcome buckets. Arbitrage opportunities can emerge when one platform prices the Guardians or Marlins significantly higher or lower than the other, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays typically limit pure profit extraction. Monitoring both venues helps you identify mispricing.

Key catalysts include roster updates, injury announcements, recent team performance trends, and weather conditions on game day. Lineup changes or trades involving star players can shift implied probabilities significantly. Public betting patterns and sharp money flows into one side may also trigger price momentum. As the game approaches, late-breaking news—such as a starting pitcher change or unexpected roster decision—often drives rapid repricing. Monitoring sports news and social sentiment helps anticipate moves before they're fully reflected in this market.