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406,065
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Closed: Sep 6, 12:57 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in a college football game between Clemson and LSU. They assess whether either team will achieve a specific point differential advantage during that final quarter of play.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either team wins the fourth quarter of the designated Clemson vs LSU college football game, excluding overtime. Each market specifies a different threshold for the point difference required for a 'Yes' outcome, ranging from narrow margins to larger differentials. Only points scored during the fourth quarter count toward these thresholds. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging with—and sometimes diverging from—sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows individuals to express their own predictions, potentially incorporating unique information or insights. If there’s a significant difference between the two, it could indicate that market participants believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome, or that new information hasn’t yet been fully factored into the sportsbook’s lines. It’s a dynamic comparison, constantly shifting as new data emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring in the fourth quarter. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This dynamic process aims to establish a fair and efficient price based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing body of the game, and will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual fourth-quarter point spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Clemson or LSU teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s playing style, could also shift the spread. In-game performance during the first three quarters—such as a dominant offensive showing or a surprising defensive strategy—will heavily impact trader sentiment and contract prices. Unexpected announcements or developments related to team morale or coaching decisions could also play a role.