TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This baseball market focuses on the run differential between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in their June 27, 2026 game. Bettors predict whether one team will win by more than specified run margins.
The market evaluates the final run differential between the two teams. Pittsburgh outcomes resolve to Yes if they win by more than 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs respectively. Cincinnati outcomes resolve to Yes if they win by more than 1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs respectively. Resolution is based on the final official score of the complete game as originally scheduled for June 27, 2026 at 4:05 PM EDT.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. Traders here are motivated by potential returns rather than managing liability, which can lead to sharper, less-padded odds. Comparing this market's pricing to major sportsbook spreads reveals whether professional bettors and prediction market participants agree on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts reflecting their belief in each team's spread outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating stronger market conviction. As new information emerges—injuries, weather, betting trends—traders adjust positions, and the market price updates in real time to reflect the collective forecast of the trading community.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the Cincinnati versus Pittsburgh game concludes and the final spread is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual point differential between the two teams' final scores, compared against the spread level embedded in this market. Once the game result is confirmed, the market settles automatically based on whether the spread prediction was correct, and traders' positions are finalized.
Key catalysts that could shift this market include injury announcements to star players, weather updates affecting gameplay, recent team performance trends, and line movement at major sportsbooks. Betting action and sharp money flowing into one side can also signal where informed traders believe the edge lies. Media narratives, coaching changes, or unexpected roster moves closer to game day often trigger repricing. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate market moves before they're fully reflected in the current price.